新浪必发指数网

晶圆代工营收新高背后:产能不足与持续涨价

发布时间:2021-03-30发布人:新浪必发指数网

QIANYAN:

KAINIANYILAI,BANDAOTIBANKUAIBIAOXIANHUOYUE。2021NIANDIYIJIQUANQIUJINGYUANDAIGONGSHICHANGXUQIUYIJIUWANGSHENG,JINGYUANDAIGONGCHANNENGGONGBUYINGQIUZHUANGKUANGYANXU,YUGUDIYIJIQUANQIUQIANSHIDAJINGYUANDAIGONGYEZHEZONGYINGSHOUNIANZENGZHANGJIANGDADAO20%。

LINGYIFANGMIAN,MIANDUIJINGYUANCHANNENGJINQUEZHUANGKUANG,CHANYELIANXIANGGUANGONGSIGENSUIDIAOJIA,HUOZHEZIJIANCHANNENG、BANGDINGCHANNENG,BAOZHANGGONGJI,ERYENEIBIAOSHICHANNENGGONGJIJINZHANGYEJIASULEGUOCHANHUAJINCHENG。

TUPIANLAIYUAN |  WANG LUO

上行周期势不可挡

2019NIAN10YUE,DIGITIMES ResearchYUGU 2019ZHI2024NIANQUANQIUJINGYUANDAIGONGCHANZHINIANFUHEZENGZHANGLVYOUWANGDADAO5.3%。

DAOSHI,BUHANCUNCHUQIDEBANDAOTIYENIANFUHEZENGZHANGLVYOUWANGDADAO5%,ERJINGYUANDAIGONGYEDEZENGZHANGFUDUJIANGBIZHENGGEBANDAOTIYEYAOGAOYIXIE。

BUGUO,SHOUDAOYIQINGYINGXIANG,YEJIEYUANBENRENWEI2020NIANQUANQIUBANDAOTIYEJIANGCHENGXIANTONGBIFUZENGZHANG,DANJIEGUOQUECHURENYILIAO,TONGBISHIXIANLE6%ZUOYOUDEZHENGZENGZHANG,ERJINGYUANDAIGONGZESHIXINGYESHIXIANZHENGZENGZHANGDEHUOCHETOU。

2021NIANDIYIJIQUANQIUJINGYUANDAIGONGSHICHANGXUQIUYIJIUWANGSHENG,MIANDUIZHONGDUANCHANPINDUIXINPIANDEXUQIUJUGAOBUXIA,KEHUQINGXIANGJIADALAHUOLIDAO,SHIJINGYUANDAIGONGCHANNENGGONGBUYINGQIUZHUANGKUANGYANXU,YINCIYUGUGEYEZHEYINGYUNBIAOXIANJIANGCHIXUZOUQIANG。

AI芯天下丨行情丨晶圆代工营收新高的背后,写满产能不足与持续涨价

8英寸产能预估出现误差

YOUQISHI8YINGCUNJINGYUANCHANNENG,YOUYU8YINGCUNJINGYUANZAI2007NIANDADAOTOUZIGAOFENGZHIHOU,CIHOUDESHIJIANJIUKAISHIZOUXIAPOLU,TONGSHI12YINGCUNCHANNENGCHENGWEIZHENGGEXINGYEDETOUZIZHULIU,BAOKUOGEXIN、LIANDIAN、ZHONGXINZAIGUOQUJINIANDOUZAIQIERU12YINGCUNZHICHENGHECHANNENG,CONGERHULVELE8YINGCUNCHANNENG。

ZAIJIASHANGWULIANWANG(IOT)HE5GXINPIANYIJIYUANQIJIANDEXUQIUTIZHEN,BINGQIEHAIYOUBUFENMONIXINPIAN、MEMSXINPIANHERFJIEJUEFANGANDENGDOUJIXUCAIYONG8YINGCUNJINGYUANLAISHENGCHAN,GONGTONGYINSUDEZUOYONGXIADAOZHI8YINGCUNJINGYUANCHANNENGZHUOJINJIANZHOU。

2021年并没有停下来的意思

在2021年,PC、汽车电子、手机等产业还将持续加强。

GENJUJIBANGZIXUNDESHUJUXIANSHI,SHOUYIQINGLADONG,QUNIANQUANQIUBIDIANDECHUHUOLIANGSHOUCICHAOGUOLIANGYITAI,NIANCHENGZHANGFUDUYI22.5%CHUANGXIAXINGAO,YOUYUYIQINGDUANQIHAIWUFAJIESHU,SUOYIYUGU2021NIANQUANQIUBIDIANCHUHUOLIANGHUIDADAO2.17YITAI,NIANCHENGZHANG8.1%。

①QUANQIUZHINENGSHOUJITOUGUOZHOUQIXINGDEHUANJIXUQIU,YIJIXINXINGSHICHANGDEXUQIUZHICHENG,YUGUQUANNIANSHENGCHANZONGLIANGJIANGCHENGZHANGZHI13.6YIZHI,NIANCHENGZHANG9%。

SHOUJIHEPCCHUHUOLIANGDELASHENG,YEJIANGDAIDONGTDDIXINPIANXUQIUDEKUODA,2021NIANSHOUJIYONGTDDI ICDEGUIMOYOUJIHUIDADAO7.6YIKE,NIANCHENGZHANG8.6%。

②JINGYUANDAIGONGCHANNENGBUZUYIJINGWEIXIEDAOCHECHANG,DAOZHIXUDUODADECHEQIBEIPOXIANRUTINGGONGZHUANGTAI。ZI2018NIANQI,CHESHIZHUBUPIRUAN,JIASHANG2020NIANSHOUDAOYIQINGYANZHONGCHONGJI,SHIZHUYAOMOZUCHANGDEBEIHUODONGNENGMINGXIANBUZU。

AI芯天下丨行情丨晶圆代工营收新高的背后,写满产能不足与持续涨价

RANER,2021NIANQUANQIUQICHESHICHANGZHENGZAIFUSU,YUGUZHENGCHEXIAOSHOULIANGJIANGZIQUNIANDE7700WANLIANGHUISHENGZHI8400WANLIANG,TONGSHIQICHEZAIZIDONGHUA、LIANWANGHUAHEDIANDONGHUAFAZHANXIA,DUIYUGEZHONGBANDAOTIYUANJIANDEYONGLIANGJIANGDAFUSHANGSHENG。

产能将在今年全面爆发

JINNIANDIYIJIDU,TAIJIDIAN5nmZHICHENGYINGSHOUGONGXIANYOUWANGBAOCHIJINLIANGCHENG,7nmZHICHENGXUQIUQIANGJING,YUJI7nmYINGSHOUGONGXIANJIANGXIAOFUZENGZHANG,YOUWANGCHAOGUOSANCHENG;

ZAIJIASHANGCHEYONGXINPIANXUQIUYUESHENG,YUGUDIYIJIDUTAIJIDIANZHENGTIYINGSHOUJIANGZAICHUANGXINGAO,NIANZENG25%ZUOYOU。

由于联发科无法继续给华为供货手机芯片,前者原本要在台积电投片的7nm制程芯片已暂停,这样就释放了约1.3万片的12英寸晶圆代工产能,而这部分缺口很可能由AMD填补上。

SHICHANGYUQI,SUONIHEWEIRUANDEXINYIDAIYOUXIJIHUIQUEHUODAO2021NIANZHONGXUN,ZHEIYANG,AMDWEIZHEILIANGDAKEHUDINGZHIDECPUHEGPU。

SANXINGDE5nmHE7nmCHANNENGLIYONGLVBIAOXIANJINCIYUTAIJIDIAN,YUJIDIYIJIDUYINGSHOUTONGBIZENGZHANG11%。

AI芯天下丨行情丨晶圆代工营收新高的背后,写满产能不足与持续涨价

国内产业链顺势涨价

面对晶圆产能紧张局面,设计厂商以及封装测试端已经开始传导涨价影响,另外采取自建产能或者加强资本绑定等方式,保障产能供应。

因原材料价格上涨,供应产能持续紧张,紫光展锐将消费电子产品线的价格整体上调10-20%;

HUIDINGKEJIQUNIANDIJIUQUANXIANCHANPINMEIJINJIAGESHANGDIAO30%ZUOCHUHUIYING,ZHICHUGONGSISHIGENJUGONGYINGQINGKUANG,JINZHENDUIBUFENCHUKONGCHANPINGT9XILIEDEXIAOSHOUJIAGEZUOCHUJIAGEDIAOZHENG,BINGWEISHEJIQITACHANPINXIAN。

FUMANDIANZIRIQIANWEIYINGDUIMUQIANSHICHANGJINGYUANCHANNENGJINQUEDEQINGKUANG,YUGEDAJINGYUANCHANGSHANGDOUYOUWENDINGDEHEZUO,HUIYOUXIANBAOZHANGFUMANDEJINGYUANCHANNENG,TONGSHIGONGSIYEZAIZHUBUTUOKUANJINGYUANCAIGOUQUDAO,JINGYUANCAIGOUJIZHONGDUJINNIANYOUMINGXIANXIAJIANG。

晶圆代工厂积极布局车用市场

SHOUYIYUXIAYOUXUQIUWANGSHENG,BANDAOTIXINGYEJINGQIGAOQI,JINGYUANDAIGONGHEFENGCECHANNENGJINQUE,BUFENLINGYURUQICHEXINPIANQUEHUOQINGKUANGJIAOWEIYANZHONG。

QUANQIUCHEYONGXINPIANDAQUEHUO,MEIGUO、RIBEN、DEGUOQICHECHANYEXIANGJICHUANCHUYINCHEYONGXINPIANQUEHUOERJIANCHAN,SANGUOTOUGUOWAIJIAOGUANDAOXIANGTAIWANQIUYUAN,JINGJIBURIQIANWEICIYAOQINGTAIJIDIAN、LIANDIAN、SHIJIEXIANJINDENGJINGYUANDAIGONGCHANGDAIBIAOCHIBIANDANG,SHANGTAOYINGBIANFANGFA。

JINLAISUIZHECHEYONGSHICHANGXUQIUSHENGWEN,CHEYONGXINPIANDAQUEHUODERECHAOYECHUIXIANGSHANGYOUCAILIAOGUIJINGYUAN,HUANQIUJING、HEJINGDOUZHENGSHI,XIANGGUANDINGDANDAJUYONGRU,6CUN、8CUNCHANNENGQUANXIANMANZAI,YUQIJINNIANSHANGBANNIANXUQIUCHIXUCHANGWANG、CHANNENGRENGJIANGGONGBUYINGQIU。

AI芯天下丨行情丨晶圆代工营收新高的背后,写满产能不足与持续涨价

结尾:

DECHANNENGZHEDETIANXIADEGUSHI,YOUYICIZAI2021NIANCHENGWEIYANJIANWEIPINGDESHISHI。DUIYUBANDAOTIXINGYECHANNENGJINZHANG,ZHUYAOSHIYOUYUTONGXIN、JISUANJI、QICHEDENGXIAYOUXINGYEXUQIUBAOFA,QIANQICHANNENGGUIHUAZHUNBEIBUZU,DAOZHIZAIQUNIANNIANZHONGCHUXIANJINQUEGUAIDIAN。

YUJIXIAYOUXINGYEXUQIUCHIXUSHIFANG,ERBANDAOTIXINGYECHANNENGZHANGQIPIANJIN,ZHANGQILAIKAN,BANDAOTIXINGYECHUYULIANGHAODEFAZHANGUIDAO。


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