新浪必发指数网

半导体厂商开工率不高,供需错配下芯片价格持续走高

发布时间:2021-06-23发布人:新浪必发指数网

已经进入原子级加工水平,在这个精度上进行半导体器件制造,需要集合50多个学科的知识与技术。而且,加工精度只是一个维度,良率对半导体制造生死攸关,因此均匀性、稳定性、重复性、可靠性和洁净性都很重要,先进半导体加工环节超过1000个,哪个环节出了问题,都难以制造出符合产品性能与良率要求的芯片。

文︱网络

图︱网络

根据市场研究机构S的统计,2020年中国大陆首次成为全球最大半导体设备区域市场,销售额年增39%,达到187.2亿美元;中国台湾排名第二,2020年设备商在台湾地区销售额达到171.5亿美元;韩国排名第三,销售额年增61%至160.8亿美元;日本排名第四,销售额也有75.8亿美元。东亚地区成为全球半导体军备竞赛高地,2020年合计砸出595.3亿美元,占当年全球半导体设备支出总额(712亿美元)比例高达83.6%。

由于地缘政治对于半导体供应链影响加剧,2021年各区域市场对半导体产能投资竞争白热化。均将2021年在半导体上的资本支出计划调至300亿美元以上,两家在先进工艺量产进度上拼死相争,都预计2022年量产3纳米工艺,而在美国政府召唤下,台积电和三星也将赴美设厂。毫无疑问,2021年又将是半导体设备厂商的一个丰收年,而中国大陆由于受到相关限制,无法购买高端EUV等设备,恐难守住最大设备市场宝座。

在台湾工业技术研究院(以下简称台湾工研院)看来,不同区域市场对半导体产业发展目标不同:作为全球最大半导体应用市场,中国大陆在供应链安全受到威胁的背景下,无疑更希望加快技术追赶,以缓解在制造、设备与材料等关键环节受控于人的现状;而美国作为全球主导者,将继续加强高端芯片制造设备对中国大陆的出口管制,美国也将出台新政以应对近年来美国晶圆制造能力下降的局面;作为全球晶圆制造密度最高的两个地区,中国台湾与韩国将有希望继续引领晶圆制造工艺发展趋势,这两个区域也将借助强大的制造能力,改善上游的材料与设备自主状况。

先进工艺发展方向

在28纳米之后,平面晶体管工艺达到极限,FinFET(鳍式晶体管)延续了摩尔定律,将工艺节点推进到现在的10纳米以下。不过FinFET路线也已经接近极限,三星将在3纳米工艺上率先采用GAA(全环绕栅极)结构,台积电则在3纳米节点继续FinFET结构,到2纳米节点再采用GAA结构。台湾工研院认为,在晶圆制造上遇到了麻烦,7纳米工艺(注:三家对工艺尺寸定义各有区别,不适合直接拿数字对比)或将延至2023年才能量产,预计英特尔在5纳米节点也将改为GAA架构。

ZILIAOLAIYUAN:TAIWANGONGYEJISHUYANJIUYUAN

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五巨头把控的半导体前道设备市场

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东京电子2020年设备销售额为103.7亿美元,排名第三。东京电子涂胶显影设备市场份额占全球比例高达91%,其中EUV涂胶显影机更是独占全部市场份额,蚀刻机占全球比例为25%,沉积设备37%,清洗设备27%。2020年至2022年,东京电子计划投入4000亿日元研发经费,重点投入在选择性沉积、智能蚀刻、超临界流体清洗等技术方向。

泛林2020年营收为100.5亿美元,排名第四。泛林是全球蚀刻设备龙头,其中存储器制造业务占比57%,逻辑工艺占比43%,是前五大设备厂商中,唯一存储器业务占比超五成的公司。如前所述,泛林和阿斯麦与imec在开发EUV干式光刻胶技术。

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ZILIAOLAIYUAN:TAIWANGONGYEJISHUYANJIUYUAN

中国设备厂商任重道远

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ZILIAOLAIYUAN:DEBANGZHENGQUAN

技术上,我国半导体设备基本还未参与到先进制程(3纳米及以下)研发阶段中,目前也尚不能支持28纳米这样的准主流工艺实现全国产化,大部分国产设备厂商现在能商用的产品还是以成熟工艺产线为主。以社会关注度较高的为例,国内主要是上海微电子装备有限公司(简称“上海微电子”),上海微电子主流产品还只能满足90纳米、110纳米等制程的光刻工艺要求。

但也有部分领域已经参与到先进工艺竞赛中。比如中微半导体在CCP刻蚀领域已经获得认可,进入其7纳米/5纳米产线;北方华创,则在ICP刻蚀设备上较为出色,28纳米级以上刻蚀设备已经实现产业化,在先进制程方面,硅刻蚀设备已经突破14纳米技术,进入上海研发中心。

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